CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-12-24T02:30:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-12-24T02:30ZCME Note: An asymmetric, likely O-type CME seen to the north and east in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a bright bulk directed north and east and a fainter/wider shock which deflects north and west over the central meridian. It is associated with a filament eruption on the Earth facing disk located at approximately N20E28 located to the east of AR3174 and is characterized by liftoff of plasma and subsequent post eruptive arcades and brightening seen in SDO 171/193/304. See DONKI entry "CME 2022-12-24T02:48Z" for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-26T16:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-12-24T05:45Z Radial velocity (km/s): 1235 Longitude (deg): 030E Latitude (deg): 23N Half-angular width (deg): 27 Notes: Eruptive filament seen on H-Alpha (e.g. Learmonth) and SDO AIA304 around 0230Z, helicoidal ejecta appears on AIA304, then as ICME in Lasco C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Reanalysis by MTL after KW. Parameters obtained very similar (MTL more E-ward main diff) - took middle line between analyses. No extra images used as none available. Fit to one frame St A and several C3. Shock visible crossing meridian, so this portion at least Earth-directed, although not modelled in itself. Medium confidence, deterministic run is a weak hit, but some ensemble members are strong hits. Space weather advisor: Michael LawrenceLead Time: 50.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-12-24T13:59Z
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